Hollywood’s biggest night is on Sunday, coming off of an absolute rollercoaster of an award season. We’re only now getting a clear frontrunner with Anora, Emilia Perez has gone from social media pariah to social media pariah that may actually lose now, and multiple nominee surprises have shaken up people’s predictions, including my own. The Substance may end up being the most deranged movie to gain major Oscar attention and/or wins since Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Walter Salles’ incredible drama I’m Still Here beat the odds to gain a Best Picture nomination that, in my opinion, it deserves to win. As always, though, you have likely already heard all this, which is why I like talking about the stuff that you probably haven’t, like the shorts. As is usually the case, there were a lot of good shorts this year, some great, some okay, and at least one where I’m questioning who’s even voting for these. At the very least, I’m highlighting the animated ones.

The animated shorts in particular included an especially disappointing snub with Don Hertzfeldt’s ME, which did make the shortlist but not the nominees, dashing my hopes that the Academy will give him at least one well-deserved Oscar. While I like to say that the animated Oscar shorts are where anything is possible, it was particularly more true this year than last year. Many of the films featured take full advantage of the medium, and even the shorts with the heaviest subject matter convey it in ways that live action simply can’t. Here are the nominees for Best Animated Short film.

Beautiful Men tells the story of three bald brothers who have traveled to Istanbul for a hair transplant. However, a misunderstanding results in only one of them actually getting the opportunity, and it isn’t long before insecurities and conflicts boil to the surface. I typically love watching the Oscar-nominated animated shorts for films like this, and to see them get wider exposure (even if the presence of animated drama for adult audiences still results in the Academy treating it like a disposable medium for kids). This short, however, is severely lacking. The stop-motion animation and puppet designs are great, and there are some amusing moments, but really, there’s not much here. In addition, the ending felt really rushed, as if the filmmakers didn’t know how to conclude the piece. I have heard people predict this short will win (mainly on GoldDerby). Last year, the Academy went for the weakest choice with War is Over!, but at least the politics at the time justified why they would pick it. Here, I really don’t see anything that leads me to believe that this has a chance, and while I support animation like this, I will be disappointed if it wins.

In the Shadow of the Cypress I already covered last year when it played at the Tribeca Film Festival, during which it won the award for Best Animated Short. That win qualified it for this year’s Oscars, where it’s currently nominated. A dialogue-free short from Iran, it’s about a former captain living in a house by the sea, whose PTSD strains his relationship with his daughter. My thoughts on this haven’t changed much since Tribeca. This short does a great job using animation to express difficult themes, and I loved how much surrealism was present. In terms of the five, I’d say that this is definitely one of the better nominees.

Daisuke Nishio has had a notable career in anime, directing a good amount of the Dragon Ball franchise among other things. His short film Magic Candies is an absolute delight and is, in my opinion, a strong frontrunner. The short is about Dong-Dong, a lonely boy who plays with marbles. He goes to buy some new ones, but what he thinks are marbles turn out to be candies. Not just any candies, either. After eating one, the sofa starts talking. Dong-Dong figures out how the candies work and soon gains a new perspective on life. Heartfelt and extremely funny, this was a joy to watch. It’s animated in CGI at a low-frame rate, essentially using 2D anime production techniques in a 3D environment, but what it lacks in fluidity it makes up for with extremely detailed art design. Honestly, I went into this thinking it was stop-motion because the CGI was so good. One of my favorite jokes it this is the use of onscreen text exclamations. While common in anime and manga, the use of it in a 3D setting I found incredibly humorous and inventive. I’d say of the five shorts, this was one of my favorites, and I’d put it as my pick for the winner. Of particular note is the fact that the film qualified for the Oscars for winning the Grand Jury Prize after premiering at the New York International Children’s Film Festival. The festival is one of the best places to watch international and independent animation in New York City, and I hope to cover this year’s festival soon.

I feel like dark takes on children’s’ television is a bit of an overused premise (Pib and Pog is one of my favorite examples), but Wander to Wonder takes it in a direction I genuinely did not expect. In the 1980’s, Wander to Wonder was a beloved kids’ TV staple, in which a friendly live-action host and three friendly stop-motion monsters teach children educational lessons. That is, until the creator and host died an untimely death (we don’t find out how, but whatever happened, nobody has removed his body). Now his three animated co-stars, amusingly revealed to be further stop-motion puppets wearing monster costumes, are alone, running out of food, and making increasingly desperate episodes for an audience that may or may not be there. This is honestly one of the darkest, bleakest animated shorts I’ve seen the Oscars nominate, and as a creative, it really hit me hard. As a mediation on how creations take on lives on their own (or if you just have an overactive imagination and think this) it’s absolutely devastating, even as I’d call some of it darkly comic. I can’t for certain say that this really deserves to win, but it definitely left an impact on me.

Childhood views on romance is the subject of Yuck!, a French short that I know ran quite a bit of the festival circuit. A group of kids view in disgust as they see adults kissing (some claim to have even seen them “doing it”), but it isn’t long before one boy finds himself attracted to a girl, and wanting to kiss himself. I’ve definitely seen this topic explored before, and this was a particularly cute example. I appreciated how the characters’ lips glow when they’re in love. Overall, though, I don’t see this as much of a contender as some of the other ones. It was definitely a fun watch, however.

As for the animated features, this was a particularly strong year. My pick is The Wild Robot, but overall I’d say they’re all worth watching. Even the weakest nominee, Inside Out 2, still had one of the best depictions of mental health issues I’ve seen in animation. There’s been talk that Flow could end up taking home the big prize which, if that were to happen, would be notable in that a low-budget dialogue-free film made in Blender would beat out several other productions with much higher production values. Anyway, we’ll see who ends up winning on Sunday. (Although if they make another crack about these movies being for children the year Memoir of a Snail is nominated, I swear to God…)

It’s almost time for the Oscars, so here are my picks and predictions for the winners. As far as the nominees are concerned, I’d say this was a great year overall, and many of the best films of 2023 are represented. There were some major snubs, but that’s always the case. However, it was also a tumultuous year as well, with the strikes pushing a number of Oscar hopefuls, among them Dune: Part Two, into next year. The major nominations are certainly interesting. If you had told me early last year that the Barbie movie would be a Best Picture nominee and have multiple other major nominations, to say I’d be skeptical would be an understatement, but here we are. Anatomy of a Fall is easily the most cathartic of the multi-nominees, as France basically blew their shot at the Best International Film Oscar by submitting The Taste of Things instead. It made it to the shortlist, but not past that, while Anatomy received a Best Picture nomination and 4 other major ones. The Best Picture lineup also includes The Zone of Interest, easily the most experimental and daring nominee I’ve seen recently. Anyway, here are my picks and predictions (with a major source for my projected winners being GoldDerby).

As mentioned in earlier articles, my picks (or preferred picks, at least) for the short films are Ninety-Five Senses for Best Animated Short, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar for Best Live-Action Short, and The Last Repair Shop for Best Documentary Short, with 20 Days in Mariupol as my pick for Best Documentary Feature. For Best International Feature Film, The Zone of Interest is an absolute lock. However, I’d say that the category as a whole represents some of the best films of the past year. Society of the Snow, Perfect Days, Io Capitano, and The Teacher’s Lounge are all worth seeing, with some being must-see films.

For Best Animated Feature, the obvious pick would probably be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which isn’t just the year’s best animated film, but easily one of the biggest cinematic achievements in recent memory. However, it may actually have some competition, as Hayao Mizayaki’s The Boy and the Heron has racked up a few major awards in recent months. I wouldn’t be surprised if Heron takes it. Aside from having the name recognition of being directed by one of animation’s great masters, it has an advantage over Spider-Verse in that it isn’t a sequel to a film that already won, and it’s also a full story.

Now to cycle through the technical and music nominees. For Best Song, Barbie (which has two nominations) is predicted to win for Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For”. For Sound, Oppenheimer is the projected winner, and is certainly a contender. However, I feel like the one that really deserves it is The Zone of Interest, which conveyed the horrors of its subject matter entirely through the sound mix. For Best Score, Oppenheimer is my pick, though Poor Things definitely deserves merit there. For Best Cinematography, Oppenheimer will likely win, but Poor Things’ use of wide-angle lenses to enhance the atmosphere made it my favorite of the nominees. For Production Design, it’s gonna be a matchup between Barbie bringing its plastic source to vivid life, and Poor Things’ steampunk phantasmagoria. Both are stunning examples, but only one will win. For Best Makeup, Maestro will likely take this one for transforming Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein and Carey Mulligan into Felicia Montealegre. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t bring up Poor Things as a contender, especially Willem Dafoe’s scarred makeup job. Barbie will likely take Best Costume Design, with Poor Things a contender as well.

Now, on to two of my favorite technical nominees. For Best Editing, there are so many great examples, from The Holdovers playing out like a lost 70s film, to Poor Things and its often garish or fantastical shot choices, to whatever Anatomy of a Fall did to make 150 minutes seem like 90 to me. However, Oppenheimer is likely taking it, and rightfully so. The film does a great job moving at an engaging pace, and deftly switches between the perspectives of its characters. For Best Visual Effects, the projected winner is Japanese blockbuster and stateside sleeper hit Godzilla Minus One. However, it could have competition in The Creator, which managed incredibly convincing CGI work on a budget that was large but still far below what one would expect for a film like that. I would also like to mention Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which is probably the only Marvel film I’ve seen recently that I felt actually deserved this nomination. (The “No Sleep Till Brooklyn” sequence alone makes it a contender.)

The Best Adapted Screenplay race has a lot of great contenders, but the actual winner might be a fairly recent surprise. While Oppenheimer was seen for a while as an obvious winner, Cord Jefferson’s great script for American Fiction has made major gains in the last couple months and is now seen as a serious contender. While I felt the script had some tonal issues, it’s still incredibly funny, heartfelt, and often whip-smart. Poor Things is also a great nominee with its twisted gutbuster of a screenplay. For Best Original Screenplay, honestly, the competition’s tough. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Holdovers all had great screenplays for different reasons. It seems a lot of people are predicting Anatomy, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Holdovers’ hilarious and heartwarming screenplay took it.

Best Supporting Actor is going to Robert Downey Jr. for his performance in Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss. That’s an absolute certainty. Meanwhile, Robert De Niro did an incredible job as William King Hale in Killers of the Flower Moon with his subdued but absolutely chilling portrayal. For Best Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph will easily take it for her incredible and wrenching performance as Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. Other nominees of note include Danielle Brooks’ powerhouse performance as Sofia in The Color Purple (who elicited multiple rounds of applause from the audience I saw it with), and Jodie Foster as Bonnie Stoll in Nyad.

For Best Lead Actor, Cillian Murphy looks to take it for his searing performance as J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer, which I already knew would be one of the year’s best. However, the category as a whole is top-notch. Paul Giamatti’s side-splitting performance as cantankerous boarding school professor Paul Hunham in The Holdovers was one of my favorites this year, as was Jeffrey Wright’s as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison in American Fiction. Both actors walked the line between the comedic and the dramatic aspects of their performance with ease. I also enjoyed Bradley Cooper’s performance as Leonard Bernstein.

Best Lead Actress has been a brutal race, but it seems like a clear winner may be in sight. Carey Mulligan and Annette Bening gave incredible performances in Maestro and Nyad, respectively. Sandra Hüller also got a nomination for her lead performance in Anatomy of a Fall. After first seeing her in Toni Erdmann, I’m glad she’s gotten more recognition. However, the real matchup has been between Emma Stone in Poor Things and Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Both were two of the best performances of the year, but for entirely different reasons. Emma Stone effectively transforms over the course of Poor Things from a childlike woman learning about the world around her to someone strong, wise, and independent. Lily Gladstone’s utterly wrenching portrayal of Mollie Burkhart channels generations of pain into one brutal performance that absolutely makes the film. I’ll have to tune in to see who wins, but it finally looks like Lily might be the projected winner, and if true, she absolutely deserves it.

Best Director is absolutely going to go to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, but in all honesty, basically everyone nominated has merit. Of particular note is Jonathan Glazer’s nomination for The Zone of Interest. In an inspired directorial choice, he rigged a house with cameras so the actors could be filmed in real time before the footage was edited down. This gives the movie a voyeuristic feel, and allows for more realistic performances (not to mention some happy accidents). It does feel like we’re watching people like life as normal, even as the unthinkable is happening offscreen. Yorgos Lanthimos’ direction for Poor Things was also among my favorites of the nominees this year. Finally, Best Picture is going to Oppenheimer, and it deserves it. All that’s left to do now is to see the results, capping off a turbulent but still great year for cinema as a whole. Thank you for reading my coverage of this year’s Oscar nominees.