It’s almost time for the Oscars, so here are my picks and predictions for the winners. As far as the nominees are concerned, I’d say this was a great year overall, and many of the best films of 2023 are represented. There were some major snubs, but that’s always the case. However, it was also a tumultuous year as well, with the strikes pushing a number of Oscar hopefuls, among them Dune: Part Two, into next year. The major nominations are certainly interesting. If you had told me early last year that the Barbie movie would be a Best Picture nominee and have multiple other major nominations, to say I’d be skeptical would be an understatement, but here we are. Anatomy of a Fall is easily the most cathartic of the multi-nominees, as France basically blew their shot at the Best International Film Oscar by submitting The Taste of Things instead. It made it to the shortlist, but not past that, while Anatomy received a Best Picture nomination and 4 other major ones. The Best Picture lineup also includes The Zone of Interest, easily the most experimental and daring nominee I’ve seen recently. Anyway, here are my picks and predictions (with a major source for my projected winners being GoldDerby).

As mentioned in earlier articles, my picks (or preferred picks, at least) for the short films are Ninety-Five Senses for Best Animated Short, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar for Best Live-Action Short, and The Last Repair Shop for Best Documentary Short, with 20 Days in Mariupol as my pick for Best Documentary Feature. For Best International Feature Film, The Zone of Interest is an absolute lock. However, I’d say that the category as a whole represents some of the best films of the past year. Society of the Snow, Perfect Days, Io Capitano, and The Teacher’s Lounge are all worth seeing, with some being must-see films.

For Best Animated Feature, the obvious pick would probably be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which isn’t just the year’s best animated film, but easily one of the biggest cinematic achievements in recent memory. However, it may actually have some competition, as Hayao Mizayaki’s The Boy and the Heron has racked up a few major awards in recent months. I wouldn’t be surprised if Heron takes it. Aside from having the name recognition of being directed by one of animation’s great masters, it has an advantage over Spider-Verse in that it isn’t a sequel to a film that already won, and it’s also a full story.

Now to cycle through the technical and music nominees. For Best Song, Barbie (which has two nominations) is predicted to win for Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For”. For Sound, Oppenheimer is the projected winner, and is certainly a contender. However, I feel like the one that really deserves it is The Zone of Interest, which conveyed the horrors of its subject matter entirely through the sound mix. For Best Score, Oppenheimer is my pick, though Poor Things definitely deserves merit there. For Best Cinematography, Oppenheimer will likely win, but Poor Things’ use of wide-angle lenses to enhance the atmosphere made it my favorite of the nominees. For Production Design, it’s gonna be a matchup between Barbie bringing its plastic source to vivid life, and Poor Things’ steampunk phantasmagoria. Both are stunning examples, but only one will win. For Best Makeup, Maestro will likely take this one for transforming Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein and Carey Mulligan into Felicia Montealegre. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t bring up Poor Things as a contender, especially Willem Dafoe’s scarred makeup job. Barbie will likely take Best Costume Design, with Poor Things a contender as well.

Now, on to two of my favorite technical nominees. For Best Editing, there are so many great examples, from The Holdovers playing out like a lost 70s film, to Poor Things and its often garish or fantastical shot choices, to whatever Anatomy of a Fall did to make 150 minutes seem like 90 to me. However, Oppenheimer is likely taking it, and rightfully so. The film does a great job moving at an engaging pace, and deftly switches between the perspectives of its characters. For Best Visual Effects, the projected winner is Japanese blockbuster and stateside sleeper hit Godzilla Minus One. However, it could have competition in The Creator, which managed incredibly convincing CGI work on a budget that was large but still far below what one would expect for a film like that. I would also like to mention Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which is probably the only Marvel film I’ve seen recently that I felt actually deserved this nomination. (The “No Sleep Till Brooklyn” sequence alone makes it a contender.)

The Best Adapted Screenplay race has a lot of great contenders, but the actual winner might be a fairly recent surprise. While Oppenheimer was seen for a while as an obvious winner, Cord Jefferson’s great script for American Fiction has made major gains in the last couple months and is now seen as a serious contender. While I felt the script had some tonal issues, it’s still incredibly funny, heartfelt, and often whip-smart. Poor Things is also a great nominee with its twisted gutbuster of a screenplay. For Best Original Screenplay, honestly, the competition’s tough. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Holdovers all had great screenplays for different reasons. It seems a lot of people are predicting Anatomy, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Holdovers’ hilarious and heartwarming screenplay took it.

Best Supporting Actor is going to Robert Downey Jr. for his performance in Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss. That’s an absolute certainty. Meanwhile, Robert De Niro did an incredible job as William King Hale in Killers of the Flower Moon with his subdued but absolutely chilling portrayal. For Best Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph will easily take it for her incredible and wrenching performance as Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. Other nominees of note include Danielle Brooks’ powerhouse performance as Sofia in The Color Purple (who elicited multiple rounds of applause from the audience I saw it with), and Jodie Foster as Bonnie Stoll in Nyad.

For Best Lead Actor, Cillian Murphy looks to take it for his searing performance as J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer, which I already knew would be one of the year’s best. However, the category as a whole is top-notch. Paul Giamatti’s side-splitting performance as cantankerous boarding school professor Paul Hunham in The Holdovers was one of my favorites this year, as was Jeffrey Wright’s as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison in American Fiction. Both actors walked the line between the comedic and the dramatic aspects of their performance with ease. I also enjoyed Bradley Cooper’s performance as Leonard Bernstein.

Best Lead Actress has been a brutal race, but it seems like a clear winner may be in sight. Carey Mulligan and Annette Bening gave incredible performances in Maestro and Nyad, respectively. Sandra Hüller also got a nomination for her lead performance in Anatomy of a Fall. After first seeing her in Toni Erdmann, I’m glad she’s gotten more recognition. However, the real matchup has been between Emma Stone in Poor Things and Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Both were two of the best performances of the year, but for entirely different reasons. Emma Stone effectively transforms over the course of Poor Things from a childlike woman learning about the world around her to someone strong, wise, and independent. Lily Gladstone’s utterly wrenching portrayal of Mollie Burkhart channels generations of pain into one brutal performance that absolutely makes the film. I’ll have to tune in to see who wins, but it finally looks like Lily might be the projected winner, and if true, she absolutely deserves it.

Best Director is absolutely going to go to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, but in all honesty, basically everyone nominated has merit. Of particular note is Jonathan Glazer’s nomination for The Zone of Interest. In an inspired directorial choice, he rigged a house with cameras so the actors could be filmed in real time before the footage was edited down. This gives the movie a voyeuristic feel, and allows for more realistic performances (not to mention some happy accidents). It does feel like we’re watching people like life as normal, even as the unthinkable is happening offscreen. Yorgos Lanthimos’ direction for Poor Things was also among my favorites of the nominees this year. Finally, Best Picture is going to Oppenheimer, and it deserves it. All that’s left to do now is to see the results, capping off a turbulent but still great year for cinema as a whole. Thank you for reading my coverage of this year’s Oscar nominees.

Thelonious “Monk” Ellison is a man at the end of his rope. As a writer of color, his books either aren’t selling or aren’t being published, because neither publishers nor audiences see what his takes on mythology have to do with the African-American experience. (When told by his agent that publishers want a “Black book” he responds that they have one: “I’m black, and it’s my book.”) Meanwhile, the most acclaimed book out right now by an African-American is Sintara Golden’s We’s Lives in Da Ghetto, much to Monk’s anger. As a professor, he can barely discuss historical readings without his white students becoming uncomfortable at discussions and language involving historical racism against minorities, and his behavior in response results in him being given time off. As an estranged member of his family, unexpected circumstances leave him in desperate need of a lot of money. Fed up, he writes a joke novel entitled My Pafology under the pseudonym Stagg R. Leigh that presents a blatantly stereotypical look at ghetto life, and sends it off to his publisher. Of course, they buy it, and Monk now has to balance his immediate need for success with his increasing discontent with the situation he has created.

The first thing of note is that Jeffrey Wright is absolutely perfect in the role of Monk. I love him as an actor, and this film is no exception, as he perfectly conveys both the comedic and dramatic aspects of the story. What really surprised me is just how universal some of the film was. This isn’t just a film about race and representation, but also about being an industry creative as a whole, balancing ambitions with market forces, and maybe even realizing your own flaws in what you expect from your audience. Some of my favorite moments in the film were more about writing than they were about satire. (As a creator myself, the scene in which Monk writes My Pafology was a beauty to behold.)

In fact, I felt that the film’s biggest flaw was the satire itself. I’m not saying it’s bad. This film can be hilarious in its skewering of the media and how liberal White Americans respond to stories of the African-American experience, with Miriam Shor and Michael Cyril Creighton delivering some of the film’s funniest moments as the publishers of My Pafology (Shor’s character in particular has art of Ruth Bader Ginsburg displayed proudly on her office wall in a perfectly-timed shot). This would be great if it kept that tone for the entire movie, but for a lot of it, it’s a pretty grounded drama, and the results of the combination are mixed. Sometimes, there are moments when the film flows from comedy to conflict in an instant, before ending with a gutbuster of a punchline. Other times, scenes feel more like comedy sketches inserted into an awards contender. (Notably, the trailer I kept seeing for this film limited itself to only the satirical and comedic moments, which definitely impacted my experience.) I also felt that the ending was a tad clunky (even if it is definitely spot-on).

That said, the script is at times phenomenal, and without giving too much away, Monk’s character feels fully fleshed out and develops during the story, as opposed to simply being a catalyst to mock the film’s targets. It definitely sets it above some other comparable works I’ve seen, and really is a film that puts heart above harshness. Anyone who’s a creative should definitely consider checking this out. It’s scathingly funny, heartwarming, thought-provoking, and mostly well-written. If it had nailed the tone a bit more, this would’ve been one of my favorite films of the year, but it’s certainly recommended as-is.